Demographic changes5/19/2023 ![]() In middle-income countries, falling birthrates and older populations can facilitate human development improvements through an increased share of working-age adults in the population, more female participation in the workforce, and increased social stability associated with older cohorts. The combination of fewer children per woman and people living longer will see the global population age rise from a median of about 31 years in 2020 to 35 in 2040. (SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LIKELY TO DOMINATE POPULATION GROWTH IN COMING DECADES - Click image to enlarge) In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa will account for around two-thirds of global population growth and is poised to nearly double its current population by 2050, portending extensive strains on infrastructure, education, and healthcare. As birthrates remain low and the median age rises, most developed and a handful of emerging economies will see their populations peak and then start to shrink by 2040, including China, Japan, Russia, and many European countries. Although India’s population growth is slowing, it will still overtake China as the world’s most populous country around 2027. Population growth in most of Asia will decline quickly, and after 2040, the population will begin to contract. SLOWING POPULATION GROWTH, AGING POPULATIONSĭuring the next 20 years, the world’s population will continue to increase every year, adding approximately 1.4 billion people to reach an estimated 9.2 billion by 2040, but the rate of population growth will slow in all regions. (TRENDS IN DEMOGRAPHICS 2000-2020, 2020-2040 - Click image to enlarge)Īs birth rates remain low and the median age rises, most developed and many emerging economies will see their populations peak and then start to shrink by 2040. These demographic and human development trends will put pressure on governments to increase public investment and control immigration, potentially fuel instability in some countries, contribute to a rising Asia, and add to the agenda of already strained international development institutions.Conflict and climate disruptions will compound these broader migration trends. During the next two decades, demographic shifts and economic incentives are likely to increase pressure for migration out of developing countries, mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa, and primarily into aging, developed countries.Relatively poor countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will account for almost all global population growth during the next two decades and will be rapidly urbanizing at the same time, most likely overwhelming their capacity to provide the infrastructure and education systems necessary to fully harness their economic growth potential.Slowing population growth and a rising global median age are presenting potential economic opportunities for some developing economies, but rapidly aging and contracting populations in some developed economies and China will weigh on economic growth.It also urges policy makers to ensure openness to flows of labor, trade and capital to smooth population imbalances.STRUCTURAL FORCES DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT The report classifies countries according to where they stand on the demographic spectrum and recommends appropriate policies at each stage. In contrast, the engines of global growth are aging rapidly and many will experience outright population contraction alongside dwindling working-age shares. These countries must cement economic gains by boosting productivity, taking steps to increase labor force participation, and adopt fiscally sustainable old-age support systems. However, many of these countries are plagued by conflict and fragility, and will need to accelerate job creation and investment in human capital to seize the advantage their young populations afford them. The centers of global poverty will experience increases in working-age populations, offering the opportunity to reap a demographic dividend from rising incomes. Population trends vary widely among countries and regions. At the same time the global working-age share peaked in 2012 and is now declining with seismic implications. Part 2 of this year’s Global Monitoring Report analyses major demographic shifts that will shape economic growth and development for decades to come. The world's population growth has slowed markedly. ![]() Democratic Republic of Congo - Français.
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